Who Will Go 16 - 0
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Payton is the best going right now. If anyone can take his team to 16-0 it is him. I think they have a better chance then the Saints. However, a lot depends on whether or not each team is playing for something the last few regular season games and if they rest/protect key players. With that said I still think the Colts have a better chance.
Payton is the best going right now. If anyone can take his team to 16-0 it is him. I think they have a better chance then the Saints. However, a lot depends on whether or not each team is playing for something the last few regular season games and if they rest/protect key players. With that said I still think the Colts have a better chance.
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I picked "neither".
I'm sure I'm wrong, but we'll see.
In any event . . . there's a good probability that if either (or both) finish 16-0, they still won't win the Super Bowl.
EDIT: This is info that I calculated about 2 months ago (and reported in 2 different posts). I'll combined it here . . .
PART #1:
Well, I just got done spending time researching info from NFL.com, and it's quite interesting . . .
I chose to look back as far as the 1982 NFL season which was shortened by a player's strike. The season was only 6-7 games. [I also graduated from HS in 1983, and thought it would be a good place to start.]
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So, this covers the past 26 years of the NFL (1983-2008)
In a nut shell . . .
The New England Patriots were that last team to have the best regular season record and win the Super Bowl. That was in 2003! NE won Super Bowl XXXVIII while amassing a 14-2 record.
What's also interesting that from 1983-2008, the team that had the best regular season record, won the Super Bowl 10 times while the remaining 16 SB wins were from "other" teams!
Only 2 of the last 10 SB winners, also had the best regular season record (2003 Patriots and 2002 Buccaneers)!
Only 4 of the last 15 SB winners, also had the best regular season record (add . . . 1996 Packers and 1994 49ers)!
Only 7 of the last 20 SB winners, also had the best regular season record (add . . . 1993 Cowboys, 1991 Redskins, and 1989 49ers)!
Take what you want from all of this, but my theory is this . . .
YES, you need to do well enough to remain at/near the top of your division throughout the season . . .
However, it's the momentum that your teams carries from the end of the regular season into the playoffs that is a better determinant (than your overall regular season record) in winning the Super Bowl.
This seems like a "no-brainer", but how many arguments have you heard from fans that base everything on a teams record?
PART #2:
Well, I was bored, so I continued my research of the NFL from 1982 back to the first SB year of 1966 (SB I was held in Jan, '67).
Out of a possible 17 SBs (from 1966-1982), 10 were won by the team that had the best regular season record.
8 of the 10 SBs from 1970-1979 were won by the team that had the best regular season record.
1 out of the 4 SBs in the 1960s was won by the team with the best regular season record (the 1966 Packer won SB I).
Taking all years into account . . .
2000-2008 = 2 out of 9 SB winners also had the best regular season record.
1990-1999 = 4 out of 10 SB winners also had the best regular season record.
1980-1989 = 5 out of 10 SB winners also had the best regular season record.
1970-1979 = 8 out of 10 SB winners also had the best regular season record (season expanded from 14 to 16 games in 1978).
1966-1969 = 1 out of 4 SB winners also had the best regular season record (keep in mind that the best NFL team played the best AFL team in the SB until the merger in 1970) .
2008-1966 = 20 out of 43 SB winners also had the best regular season record!
Looks like the "trend" continues . . . as time has passed, it has become less important to have the best record in the league!
I picked "neither".
I'm sure I'm wrong, but we'll see.
In any event . . . there's a good probability that if either (or both) finish 16-0, they still won't win the Super Bowl.
EDIT: This is info that I calculated about 2 months ago (and reported in 2 different posts). I'll combined it here . . .
PART #1:
Well, I just got done spending time researching info from NFL.com, and it's quite interesting . . .
I chose to look back as far as the 1982 NFL season which was shortened by a player's strike. The season was only 6-7 games. [I also graduated from HS in 1983, and thought it would be a good place to start.]
So, this covers the past 26 years of the NFL (1983-2008)
In a nut shell . . .
The New England Patriots were that last team to have the best regular season record and win the Super Bowl. That was in 2003! NE won Super Bowl XXXVIII while amassing a 14-2 record.
What's also interesting that from 1983-2008, the team that had the best regular season record, won the Super Bowl 10 times while the remaining 16 SB wins were from "other" teams!
Only 2 of the last 10 SB winners, also had the best regular season record (2003 Patriots and 2002 Buccaneers)!
Only 4 of the last 15 SB winners, also had the best regular season record (add . . . 1996 Packers and 1994 49ers)!
Only 7 of the last 20 SB winners, also had the best regular season record (add . . . 1993 Cowboys, 1991 Redskins, and 1989 49ers)!
Take what you want from all of this, but my theory is this . . .
YES, you need to do well enough to remain at/near the top of your division throughout the season . . .
However, it's the momentum that your teams carries from the end of the regular season into the playoffs that is a better determinant (than your overall regular season record) in winning the Super Bowl.
This seems like a "no-brainer", but how many arguments have you heard from fans that base everything on a teams record?
PART #2:
Well, I was bored, so I continued my research of the NFL from 1982 back to the first SB year of 1966 (SB I was held in Jan, '67).
Out of a possible 17 SBs (from 1966-1982), 10 were won by the team that had the best regular season record.
8 of the 10 SBs from 1970-1979 were won by the team that had the best regular season record.
1 out of the 4 SBs in the 1960s was won by the team with the best regular season record (the 1966 Packer won SB I).
Taking all years into account . . .
2000-2008 = 2 out of 9 SB winners also had the best regular season record.
1990-1999 = 4 out of 10 SB winners also had the best regular season record.
1980-1989 = 5 out of 10 SB winners also had the best regular season record.
1970-1979 = 8 out of 10 SB winners also had the best regular season record (season expanded from 14 to 16 games in 1978).
1966-1969 = 1 out of 4 SB winners also had the best regular season record (keep in mind that the best NFL team played the best AFL team in the SB until the merger in 1970) .
2008-1966 = 20 out of 43 SB winners also had the best regular season record!
Looks like the "trend" continues . . . as time has passed, it has become less important to have the best record in the league!
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As we have seen in the past few years the team with the best regular season record doesn't always win the SB. As much as my wife would love to see the Saints and the Colts face each other in the Super Bowl...both undefeated and one of the teams getting to take their place next to the Dolphins as undefeated SB Champs....I just don't see that happening.
Both the Saints and the Colts have been on the verge of losing games lately. In both cases...their defenses played just well enough in the final minutes to secure the victory for both teams. Both teams have weaknesses in their defenses' that none of their opponents have been able to exploit enough over the course of a complete game to beat them. Now...I mainly give the offenses of both these teams the credit for putting more pressure on their opposing teams defenses to account for their steller records.
As for the Colts...I believe they will tend to have problems against a team like San Diego. San Diego has a very high power offense that is on a roll right now. They have been playing on a level equal to the Saints and Colts the past few weeks and may end up facing the Colts in the AFC Championship game.
As for the Saints...well...the NFC teams don't seem to have enough of a running game to exploit the Saints weakness against the rush for a full game. Seems every team they have played lately that has good running game has been riddled with injuries and cannot keep up with the Saints offense. The Vikings have an excellent running game...but everyone knows AP has trouble fumbling the ball...and the Saints defense has scored 7 or 8 TD's and is the top team...or tied for the top team...in 4th quater take aways. To beat the Saints...you have to have a team with a really good ground attack that can put together 7 and 8 minute drives that result in TD's, and keep Drew Brees on the sidelines. ( Note...you have to score TD's against the saints to win...FG's don't cut the mustard) If you get into a passing game, where you try to outscore the Saints...right now...you are going to lose. You have to run the ball against them and keep their offense off the field...which up till now..no one has been able to do.
I don't see Dallas being able to run against the Saints...they are too banged up offesively. Plus...the Cowboys are shakey at best on the road...and playing in New Orleans is no easy feat....remember how easily the Saints dismembered the Pats. Romo has not been playing very well at all....just look at last weeks pitful performance...add to that the road record of the Cowboys...3 - 3...with their only notable road victory over a banged up Philly in week nine. Other road victories were at KC and TB...both pitiful teams.
Both teams may go undefeated...both may not...we will see.
Edited Sunday 12-20...Noon Central time:
I even told my wife before the Saints game what the Cowboys had to do to win the game. My contention that the Cowboys wouldn't be able to run was wrong...since that's what they did. But my prediction on how to beat the Saints was spot on. Keep the ball away from Brees...and that's what they did. Kudos to the Cowboys for an excellent game plan and playing all 4 quarters against a top flight opponent....something they haven't done consistently enough this season. If the Cowboys can stay healthy and play with the intensity they did last night the rest of the season...they could make a serious run in the playoffs!!!
As we have seen in the past few years the team with the best regular season record doesn't always win the SB. As much as my wife would love to see the Saints and the Colts face each other in the Super Bowl...both undefeated and one of the teams getting to take their place next to the Dolphins as undefeated SB Champs....I just don't see that happening.
Both the Saints and the Colts have been on the verge of losing games lately. In both cases...their defenses played just well enough in the final minutes to secure the victory for both teams. Both teams have weaknesses in their defenses' that none of their opponents have been able to exploit enough over the course of a complete game to beat them. Now...I mainly give the offenses of both these teams the credit for putting more pressure on their opposing teams defenses to account for their steller records.
As for the Colts...I believe they will tend to have problems against a team like San Diego. San Diego has a very high power offense that is on a roll right now. They have been playing on a level equal to the Saints and Colts the past few weeks and may end up facing the Colts in the AFC Championship game.
As for the Saints...well...the NFC teams don't seem to have enough of a running game to exploit the Saints weakness against the rush for a full game. Seems every team they have played lately that has good running game has been riddled with injuries and cannot keep up with the Saints offense. The Vikings have an excellent running game...but everyone knows AP has trouble fumbling the ball...and the Saints defense has scored 7 or 8 TD's and is the top team...or tied for the top team...in 4th quater take aways. To beat the Saints...you have to have a team with a really good ground attack that can put together 7 and 8 minute drives that result in TD's, and keep Drew Brees on the sidelines. ( Note...you have to score TD's against the saints to win...FG's don't cut the mustard) If you get into a passing game, where you try to outscore the Saints...right now...you are going to lose. You have to run the ball against them and keep their offense off the field...which up till now..no one has been able to do.
I don't see Dallas being able to run against the Saints...they are too banged up offesively. Plus...the Cowboys are shakey at best on the road...and playing in New Orleans is no easy feat....remember how easily the Saints dismembered the Pats. Romo has not been playing very well at all....just look at last weeks pitful performance...add to that the road record of the Cowboys...3 - 3...with their only notable road victory over a banged up Philly in week nine. Other road victories were at KC and TB...both pitiful teams.
Both teams may go undefeated...both may not...we will see.
Edited Sunday 12-20...Noon Central time:
I even told my wife before the Saints game what the Cowboys had to do to win the game. My contention that the Cowboys wouldn't be able to run was wrong...since that's what they did. But my prediction on how to beat the Saints was spot on. Keep the ball away from Brees...and that's what they did. Kudos to the Cowboys for an excellent game plan and playing all 4 quarters against a top flight opponent....something they haven't done consistently enough this season. If the Cowboys can stay healthy and play with the intensity they did last night the rest of the season...they could make a serious run in the playoffs!!!
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